Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
