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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However the current race is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and fun year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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